Why would knowing your own cubicle number affect the probability of which 50% chance had happened?
Bayes' Theorem covers the re-calculation of probabilities in light of new information.
As you said, if your number was higher than ten the probability of tails is no longer 50% but 0%.
So, take the case of your number being 7. In the case of heads, the likelihood of being in one of the cubes 1-10 is 10%. In the case of tails, the likelihood of being in one of the cubes 1-10 is 100%. Heads or tails each independently remain 50%. To combine these bits of information we use the Bayes formula to combine all these probabilities to get the relevant figure.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2007-04-17 06:09 pm (UTC)Bayes' Theorem covers the re-calculation of probabilities in light of new information.
As you said, if your number was higher than ten the probability of tails is no longer 50% but 0%.
So, take the case of your number being 7. In the case of heads, the likelihood of being in one of the cubes 1-10 is 10%. In the case of tails, the likelihood of being in one of the cubes 1-10 is 100%. Heads or tails each independently remain 50%. To combine these bits of information we use the Bayes formula to combine all these probabilities to get the relevant figure.