picking the horses '08
Nov. 16th, 2006 10:52 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
sophiaserpentiaBarack Obama 1.85
John Edwards 1.67
Bill Richardson 0.48
Hillary Clinton 0.29
Evan Bayh 0.04
Christopher Dodd 0.04
Joe Biden -0.37
Tom Vilsack -0.42
It's not a big surprise to me that Barack Obama came out on top of my little straw poll. There's a wide variance of opinion on Hillary Clinton (see the standard deviation chart posted below) and she may in the long run be seen by politicos as having too much baggage. But, if she runs she could do worse than to pick Obama as her running mate. Obama might be seen as too inexperienced to have a shot at the head of a ticket, but as the running mate might calm a lot of leftys. My early money is on Clinton/Obama as the Democratic ticket in 2008.
The only person who has a shot at spoiling this, at this stage, is John Edwards. People have good feelings left over from the clean race he ran in 2004.
Richardson, Bayh, and Dodd have a strong presence on the national political scene, solid partisan records, and no heavy baggage. Any one of them, with good organization and funding, could make ripples in this race.
John Kerry is a total variable, but he'd have a real uphill climb at this point.
And Tom Vilsack... who the heck is Tom Vilsack? Governor of Iowa, could make a strong showing in the first caucus and then quickly flare out and disappear. He is a moderate who has carefully avoided making policy statements on various things (like abortion) and i don't expect that the liberal base will take to him.
John McCain -1.75
Mike Huckabee -2.00
Sam Brownback -2.22
Rudy Giuliani -2.54
Mitt Romney -3.28
Newt Gingrich -4.43
Bill Frist -4.48
Leftists don't know what to make of John McCain. Sometimes he sounds like one of the few voices of sanity and honesty remaining on the right. Sometimes he has a weird gleam in his eye and sounds like a scary fascist. Then there's that picture of him hugging George W. Bush that made the hair on the back of my neck stand up straight. He looked like he'd rather have someone drilling on his teeth. He doesn't like to be told what to do, and that appeals to a lot of people.
2008 is his last chance to run for president. In 2012 he will be too old, and indeed, many people will say he's too old now. He has a lot of strong mojo and i suspect the Republican nomination is his to lose.
He's very conservative and i suspect that he'd look for a moderate to even out his ticket. So my early money is on McCain/Giuliani as the Republican ticket for 2008. These are two of the few Republicans walking around today not tainted by bad feelings towards the Bush Administration or the outgoing Congress.
People don't know Brownback, Huckabee or Romney yet, but once they do, they will turn away. These are the kind of standard-issue Christian conservatives people are sick and tired of. Of these three Romney has the most realistic shot out of the starting gate, but he's a Mormon, and i think in the end the Christian right is just not going to swing that way. Huckabee could run a surprisingly strong race, though; he has a solid reputation as a good executive.
standard deviation
Hillary Clinton 3.09
Barack Obama 2.98
John Edwards 2.61
Bill Richardson 2.59
Joe Biden 2.58
Tom Vilsack 2.33
Evan Bayh 2.07
Christopher Dodd 2.05
John McCain 2.92
Sam Brownback 2.57
Rudy Giuliani 2.56
Mike Huckabee 2.22
Mitt Romney 2.20
Newt Gingrich 1.94
Bill Frist 1.21
John Edwards 1.67
Bill Richardson 0.48
Hillary Clinton 0.29
Evan Bayh 0.04
Christopher Dodd 0.04
Joe Biden -0.37
Tom Vilsack -0.42
It's not a big surprise to me that Barack Obama came out on top of my little straw poll. There's a wide variance of opinion on Hillary Clinton (see the standard deviation chart posted below) and she may in the long run be seen by politicos as having too much baggage. But, if she runs she could do worse than to pick Obama as her running mate. Obama might be seen as too inexperienced to have a shot at the head of a ticket, but as the running mate might calm a lot of leftys. My early money is on Clinton/Obama as the Democratic ticket in 2008.
The only person who has a shot at spoiling this, at this stage, is John Edwards. People have good feelings left over from the clean race he ran in 2004.
Richardson, Bayh, and Dodd have a strong presence on the national political scene, solid partisan records, and no heavy baggage. Any one of them, with good organization and funding, could make ripples in this race.
John Kerry is a total variable, but he'd have a real uphill climb at this point.
And Tom Vilsack... who the heck is Tom Vilsack? Governor of Iowa, could make a strong showing in the first caucus and then quickly flare out and disappear. He is a moderate who has carefully avoided making policy statements on various things (like abortion) and i don't expect that the liberal base will take to him.
John McCain -1.75
Mike Huckabee -2.00
Sam Brownback -2.22
Rudy Giuliani -2.54
Mitt Romney -3.28
Newt Gingrich -4.43
Bill Frist -4.48
Leftists don't know what to make of John McCain. Sometimes he sounds like one of the few voices of sanity and honesty remaining on the right. Sometimes he has a weird gleam in his eye and sounds like a scary fascist. Then there's that picture of him hugging George W. Bush that made the hair on the back of my neck stand up straight. He looked like he'd rather have someone drilling on his teeth. He doesn't like to be told what to do, and that appeals to a lot of people.
2008 is his last chance to run for president. In 2012 he will be too old, and indeed, many people will say he's too old now. He has a lot of strong mojo and i suspect the Republican nomination is his to lose.
He's very conservative and i suspect that he'd look for a moderate to even out his ticket. So my early money is on McCain/Giuliani as the Republican ticket for 2008. These are two of the few Republicans walking around today not tainted by bad feelings towards the Bush Administration or the outgoing Congress.
People don't know Brownback, Huckabee or Romney yet, but once they do, they will turn away. These are the kind of standard-issue Christian conservatives people are sick and tired of. Of these three Romney has the most realistic shot out of the starting gate, but he's a Mormon, and i think in the end the Christian right is just not going to swing that way. Huckabee could run a surprisingly strong race, though; he has a solid reputation as a good executive.
standard deviation
Hillary Clinton 3.09
Barack Obama 2.98
John Edwards 2.61
Bill Richardson 2.59
Joe Biden 2.58
Tom Vilsack 2.33
Evan Bayh 2.07
Christopher Dodd 2.05
John McCain 2.92
Sam Brownback 2.57
Rudy Giuliani 2.56
Mike Huckabee 2.22
Mitt Romney 2.20
Newt Gingrich 1.94
Bill Frist 1.21
