Yep. Oil prices of $55/bbl have nothing to due with current and future supplies but everything to do with how scared people are.
This is the problem I have with game theory, namely, its stated assumption that the players are acting rationally and in their own best interest. While probably a reasonable assumption for most people, all it takes is one "irrational" person as the head of a country and things can become unpredictable.
As far as the experiment in the article goes, I would like to see this redone with people who do this for a living, e. g., a couple of NYSE or Chicago Board of Trade brokers. That would give more "real world" results, I would think.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2005-03-19 11:39 pm (UTC)This is the problem I have with game theory, namely, its stated assumption that the players are acting rationally and in their own best interest. While probably a reasonable assumption for most people, all it takes is one "irrational" person as the head of a country and things can become unpredictable.
As far as the experiment in the article goes, I would like to see this redone with people who do this for a living, e. g., a couple of NYSE or Chicago Board of Trade brokers. That would give more "real world" results, I would think.